The Bitcoin market is experiencing a fascinating divergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), with strategic maneuvers across spot and derivatives markets showing growing confidence in Bitcoin’s future.
Since January, long-term holders, defined by blockchain data as those who have held BTC for over 155 days, have accumulated over 635,000 BTC, even as short-term holders continue to offload their positions.
At the same time, traders are showing increased bullish sentiment through advanced options strategies, while rising spot demand and unusual behavior in funding rates further complicate the near-term outlook.
BTC has surged above $94,000, driven by aggressive buying activity on Binance and institutional accumulation, yet some analysts still caution against assuming the bull cycle has returned.
Source: Cryptonews
Options Market Shows Bullish Conviction Despite Volatility
According to Deribit’s Asia Business Development Head Lin Chen in a report, Bitcoin traders have increasingly turned to cash-secured put writing strategies, selling put options, and securing their positions with stablecoins.
This is similar to providing insurance against BTC price drops, collecting premiums now while being prepared to buy the asset if the market dips.
Such a move highlights not just optimism, but a calculated, long-term approach to accumulation.
Simultaneously, BTC holders are writing call options at higher strike prices to earn additional yield, pressuring Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures implied volatility.
Source: Deribit
The index has fallen from 63 to 48 following the April 7 sell-off, suggesting traders expect reduced volatility moving forward.
The bullish tilt is further evident in risk reversals resetting in favor of calls, along with a surge in open interest in options with strike prices of $95,000, $100,000, and $135,000.
BTC Open Interest Source: Coinalyze
Deribit’s $100K strike call has amassed over $1.6 billion in notional open interest, reinforcing bullish momentum.
According to Volmex, the cumulative delta across BTC options on Deribit and ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT, has reached $9 billion, indicating a high sensitivity to BTC price changes.
Such figures imply that market makers are actively adjusting hedges, potentially amplifying short-term volatility.
Spot Buying on Binance and Whale Accumulation Drive Market Momentum
While derivatives markets paint a picture of calculated optimism, the spot market, especially on Binance, has become the epicenter of aggressive buying activity.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk highlighted a sharp increase in the taker buy/sell ratio on Binance, with a 30-day rise of 18.9% and a 7-day gain of 6.2%.
This suggests that traders are placing market buy orders with urgency, a signal of strong conviction.
This aggressive taker activity implies that buyers are no longer waiting for better prices; they’re stepping in decisively.
According to Crazzyblockk, “the taker buy/sell ratio isn’t just a reflection of who’s buying or selling—it’s a real-time indicator of conviction and pressure.”
Curiously, despite the surge in BTC’s price, Binance funding rates have turned negative, suggesting that perpetual futures traders remain skeptical.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost observed that these negative rates, now at -0.00, mirror setups from October 2023 and September 2024, both of which preceded significant rallies.
This divergence between rising prices and trader disbelief could fuel a short squeeze if bears are forced to close positions.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from Glassnode confirms that long-term holders have added 635,340 BTC since January, bringing their total holdings to 13.76 million BTC.
These investors typically accumulate during dips and are widely seen as the backbone of any long-term bull run. In contrast, short-term holders have sold over 460,000 BTC, reducing their holdings to around 3.5 million BTC.
Cycle Theory Under Pressure as Market Sentiment Evolves
With Bitcoin pushing toward the $95,000 mark, debate is intensifying over whether the current rally marks the beginning of a renewed bull market or merely a temporary bounce.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who had recently called a market top, is now reconsidering his stance.
In a post on April 23, Ju admitted that BTC’s rebound, now trading 10% higher than when he made his bearish prediction, could be a sign that the traditional cyclical model is breaking down.
“If Bitcoin hits new ATH before Q4, I’m ready to throw out the cycle theory,” Ju tweeted.
This shift in narrative has been fueled by institutional buying, as entities like Strategy and others continue to purchase large amounts of BTC.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas linked Bitcoin’s recent strength to a changing investor base, where large institutional players are absorbing supply and replacing the previous dominance of retail investors.
Even as short-term holders lock in profits or exit positions, long-term holders are returning to accumulation mode.
The drop in BTC held at a loss, from over 5 million coins earlier this month to 2.6 million, suggests improving sentiment and healthier market structure.
Much of the selling came from buyers who entered at high prices, particularly during BTC’s push past $100,000, resulting in unrealized losses.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether BTC will break new all-time highs before the end of Q4.
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