The majority of users on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have not been able to rake in any profits.
Out of 171,113 crypto wallets active on the platform, 149,383, or 87.3%, did not record profits, according to new data from the on-chain analytics platform Layerhub.
Only 12.7% of wallets, totaling 21,730, managed to achieve positive returns.
Profitable Wallets Earn Modest Returns
Among the profitable wallets, the earnings remain modest for most.
Approximately 2,138 wallets earned more than $1,000, while the majority saw gains of less than $100.
Another 7,400 wallets reported profits in the $100 to $1,000 range, indicating that substantial returns are relatively rare on the platform.
Polymarket, known for enabling users to wager on real-world events using cryptocurrency, has processed around 10.8 million betting trades.
The platform saw a surge in activity between October 6 and 8, with more than 300,000 trades daily.
This uptick is attributed to global events like geopolitical conflicts and the anticipation surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
It’s important to note that not all crypto wallets are unique to individual users.
Some traders use multiple wallets to diversify their bets, adopting high-risk strategies to maximize their chances of turning a profit.
Data indicates that nearly 25,000 wallets have engaged in more than 50 trades, while about 32,000 wallets completed 20 to 50 trades.
Conversely, around 58,000 wallets participated in only one to five trades, suggesting that most users engage infrequently.
As of October 9, Polymarket’s open interest—the total number of active futures contracts—stood at $161.1 million.
The platform recently gained attention when Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed that Polymarket might more accurately predict the 2024 U.S. presidential election results than traditional polling methods.
Bloomberg to Integrate Polymarket Election Odds into Terminal
As reported, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP is set to incorporate election odds data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket into its widely used Terminal.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has become a prominent platform for tracking real-time election odds.
The platform allows users to bet on a wide range of event outcomes, leveraging transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts.
Just recently, five United States Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.
The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.
Meanwhile, in August, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan hinted at the potential introduction of commission fees to boost the company’s revenue.
At the time, Coplan said Polymarket is focused on expanding its marketplace and improving user experience.
However, he said that the company might explore different monetization strategies, including the addition of platform fees, to boost growth.
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