Bitcoin is setting the stage for its next major move. As of Thursday, BTC reclaimed $116,433 after a short-lived dip, drawing strength from a booming derivatives market. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) surged to an eye-watering $79 billion across major platforms, including CME, Binance, and Bybit.
This kind of buildup typically signals something big is brewing—either a breakout or a breakdown. Right now, most traders are betting on the former.
Adding to the momentum, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index jumped to 62, indicating a shift from “neutral” to “greed.” Institutions and retail traders alike appear to be positioning for upside.
In the options market, open interest has climbed to nearly $60 billion, with a heavy tilt toward call options, bets that Bitcoin will rise. Deribit leads this charge, with contracts aiming for $140,000 and even $200,000 BTC by year-end.
That said, not everyone is going all-in. In the past 24 hours, there’s been a sharp uptick in put options, used to hedge downside risks. With volatility picking up and expiry dates such as August 29 and December 26 in focus, traders are preparing for explosive movement in either direction.
Macro Drivers: Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and ETFs
While technical charts lay the groundwork, macro events are playing an equally important role. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new round of reciprocal tariffs kicked in this week, raising concerns over broader trade tensions.
These geopolitical shifts could trigger a risk-off environment or drive capital toward non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains in the spotlight. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 90% probability of a September rate cut. Historically, easier monetary policy has benefited assets like Bitcoin by weakening the dollar and lifting appetite for alternative stores of value. This potential dovish turn is giving crypto bulls more reason to hold firm.
ETF flows are also showing signs of life. After four straight days of outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $91.55 million on Wednesday.
While this doesn’t match early July levels, when BTC peaked at $123,218, it marks a return of institutional buying interest. A poorly received $58 billion U.S. debt auction is only adding fuel to the argument that Bitcoin could become a more attractive hedge in the months ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Forecast: $130K in Sight
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is sitting on firm footing. As detailed in my earlier BTC breakout forecast, the price recently bounced off the 50-day SMA at $112,889 and an ascending trendline stretching back to April. This confluence support has held firm, creating a new higher low and signaling trend continuation.
RSI has crossed above the 50 threshold, currently reading 53, which often marks a bullish shift in momentum. A bullish engulfing candle near support reinforces this setup.
If BTC can break through resistance at $123,206 on volume, a move toward $131,337 becomes likely, with $138,680 and $200,000 potential targets if broader tailwinds persist.
The current stair-step pattern suggests that minor pullbacks will be met with fresh buying.
Traders could consider opening long trades around $116,000 with stops near $112,000. Targeting the $123K to $130K zone is a wise idea in the near term, with higher targets achievable if ETF inflows and rate cuts align with technical momentum.
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