Key Takeaways:
Pump.Fun has lost over 50% of its value since launch, falling short of community expectations.
Despite steady protocol revenue, concerns remain about token concentration and declining user activity.
Hopes for a price recovery now rest on a potential airdrop or major exchange listing.
Since its launch, the Pump.Fun (PUMP) token has lost nearly 50% of its value, falling short of expectations for many investors.
PUMP hit its all-time high (ATH) on the first day of trading, July 16, at $0.0068. Since then, the token has dropped by roughly 44%. While some in the community are disappointed, others are still hoping for an airdrop announcement.
Source: CoinGecko
What Went Wrong With the PUMP Token?
Crypto analyst and Pink Brains co-founder Ingas noted on X (formerly Twitter) that “BONK is much more widely distributed.” Although PUMP is now trading below its launch price, the project still generates consistent protocol revenue. Weekly fees remain close to $10 million, although activity is gradually declining. At the same time, a large share of tokens, around 18%, is held by early investors.
This has raised questions about the short-term Pump.Fun price prediction, especially considering the token’s distribution and current trading volumes.
Not all signals are negative, though. The first Pump.Fun seed round raised $12 million, and early backers had a potential return of around 300 times their investment at the time of listing.
That potential upside, however, only applies to early investors. Those who bought after the exchange listing and continue to hold are likely sitting on losses. If major holders believe in the project’s long-term prospects, that could have a stabilizing effect. Although current sentiment remains unclear.
Another supporting factor is PUMP’s buyback mechanism: 0.05% of every trade on the PumpSwap decentralized exchange goes to protocol revenue, and one-quarter of that is used to buy back the token from the market. If trading volume increases, so will the size of these buybacks, which could help support the price even if retail interest weakens.
Among decentralized exchanges used for meme coin trading, PumpSwap isn’t a top contender. Platforms like Raydium continue to dominate. However, PumpSwap holds a market share above 10% and occasionally outperforms Meteora, according to Dune.
Source: Dune
Can an Airdrop Save Pump.Fun?
Many investors expected news of an airdrop following the long-anticipated ICO on July 9. However, no official update has been released since. Researcher Winny noted that overall sentiment remains mixed. While the project is still live, a large portion of tokens is concentrated among top holders.
That said, some in the crypto community believe an announcement could still arrive. It could be related to the airdrop or a new exchange listing. Either development could shift the Pump.Fun price prediction in a more optimistic direction.
At the same time, there’s a growing sense of disappointment. After all, Pump.Fun — touted as the “king of meme coins” and a casino-style launchpad — finally released its token after months of rumors. Instead of explosive growth, investors have seen a steady decline and radio silence on the airdrop.
Some believe the project’s team has no intention of letting PUMP die. Letting the token collapse would damage the platform’s reputation, especially when competitors are gaining momentum.
Still, activity on the platform is clearly declining. For investors, that may be a warning sign, particularly given the rapid growth of the LetsBonk ecosystem. Revenue is also falling. As of July 23, Pump.Fun had generated around $20 million for the month, down from $47 million in May and $39 million in June. These figures add more uncertainty to the current Pump.Fun price prediction.
Source: DeFiLlama
Competitors Eat Into Its Market Share
As previously covered, the LetsBonk launchpad — linked to Bonk (BONK) — has continued to gain traction in the meme coin sector, even following the launch of the PUMP token. Since July 5, LetsBonk has held the dominant position, and its lead has been increasing.
Pump.Fun’s trading volume still trails behind. On July 21, LetsBonk recorded $197 million in trading volume, compared to approximately $50 million for Pump.Fun.
Source: Dune
This widening gap has helped BONK build greater trust and visibility within the community. As a result, it continues to eat into Pump.Fun’s market share. Although some of PUMP’s fundamentals remain solid, the token is currently trading at a discount. The market appears to be factoring in concerns about its distribution model and declining user activity.
Pump.Fun Price Prediction: Recovery Ahead or More Pain to Come?
While Pump.Fun still brings in millions in weekly fees and maintains a loyal user base, its native token PUMP has struggled since launch. The price has dropped by nearly 50%, trading far below its debut high. Concerns about token distribution, declining trading volumes, and increased competition from platforms like LetsBonk have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
Some in the crypto community are still holding out hope for a turnaround, potentially sparked by a long-awaited airdrop or major exchange listing. However, without fresh catalysts and stronger market confidence, PUMP may continue to face downward pressure. For now, the path forward remains uncertain. The next few weeks could determine whether the token rebounds or fades further from the spotlight.
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