With recent price moves closely pegged to developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, a lasting peace could mark a turning point for the near-term TRUMP coin price forecast.
Although Iran had accepted the U.S. terms for a full ceasefire with Israel during Monday trading—sparking a sharp 12% rally—recent events have put peace talks in question.
TRUMP remains 40% below its late-May peak following the presidential dinner for top holders, struggling to regain traction and in need of a fresh social catalyst to reignite retail attention.
Speculators on the Sidelines as Lasting Peace Remains Distant
With claims of foul play from both sides and U.S. intelligence reports that the U.S. strikes were unsuccessful in wiping out Iranian nuclear facilities, retail inflows remain sidelined.
FUD surrounding a potential “World War 3” scenario continues to grow, while the derivatives market remains largely stagnant—open interest has flatlined around $330 million, according to Coinglass data.
Despite spikes on core escalations and de-escalations, long and short traders remain locked in a near 50-50 split, suggesting speculators are not actively participating in TRUMP coin price moves.
TRUMP long/short ratio. Source: Coinglass.
TRUMP Coin Price Analysis: Could a Peace Deal Be a 10x Catalyst?
A peace deal could act as a market-warming catalyst for TRUMP, potentially helping it break free from the falling wedge that has guided its decline since the late-May peak.
TRUMP / USDT 1-day price chart, falling wedge pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.
A potential ceasefire has pushed momentum bullish for the first time since May, with the MACD line surpassing the signal line in a golden cross as an early indication of a trend reversal.
Momentum has flipped bullish for the first time in weeks, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line in a golden cross—an early sign of a potential trend reversal.
The RSI has also bounced from oversold territory at 30, signalling seller exhaustion. However, it has since plateaued at 36 following news that the ceasefire has been broken.
This bullish momentum coincides with a critical bounce from the wedge’s lower support, aligned with a historic accumulation zone near the $9.30 level—the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.
This zone intersects with the pattern’s upper resistance trendline, forming a confluence zone for a potential breakout.
If bulls can defend this level and spark a breakout, the next technical target lies near the 0.786 Fibonacci level—representing a potential 60% gain from current prices.
While a peace deal could open the door to upside, a 10x remains a distant target with the current setup, particularly without active participation from speculators.
However, if $9.30 is lost, the next major support sits at $7.15—about 20% lower—mirroring the mid-April market bottom and likely invalidating the bullish reversal narrative.
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