Key Takeaways:
85% of Polymarket users expect an XRP ETF in 2025, up 11% in a month.
Nine companies, including Grayscale and Franklin Templeton, have filed S-1 forms.
Approval depends on the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case, likely within months.
According to Polymarket, 85% of users believe an XRP ETF will launch in 2025. Optimism around this has increased, with a rise of around 11% over the past month.
Source: Polymarket
One reason for this growing confidence may be the possibility that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could soon withdraw its litigation against Ripple (a name still used to refer to the broader XRP project after rebranding).
The legal battle between the SEC and Ripple began in December 2020 and has continued for four years. Now, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, speculation has emerged that the case could soon be resolved. In fact, some sources suggest this could happen in the coming months.
Lawyer Fred Rispoli, who is involved in the case, believes the trial could conclude within two months. This timeline depends on how quickly the SEC responds, with a current estimate of 30 days.
If this timeline holds, it could serve as a green light for the approval of an XRP ETF. Moreover, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated at the Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18 that he expects the SEC to withdraw the case.
When Will XRP ETF Be Approved?
Even if the legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple ends in Ripple’s favor, an XRP ETF won’t necessarily be approved right away — although many still expect it to happen in 2025.
For example, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, believes it’s only a matter of time before approval comes. He notes that the SEC-Ripple case seems close to resolution and highlights that XRP already ranks among the top three non-stablecoin assets by market cap.
According to CoinGecko, XRP ranks fourth by market cap at $128.8 billion, behind Tether (USDT) with $144.1 billion. Excluding stablecoins, XRP ranks third.
Source: CoinGecko
This position makes XRP appealing to institutional and conservative investors — the core target audience for an ETF product.
Who’s Lining Up for the ETF?
So far, nine companies have filed S-1 forms with the SEC to launch an XRP ETF: Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, ProShares, CoinShares, Grayscale, Volatility Shares, and Franklin Templeton.
Researcher Rob Cunningham estimates that once approved, 20 institutions could each purchase around 200 million XRP:
Total Holdings: 20 institutions × 200 million XRP = 4 billion XRP, or about 6.9% of the circulating supply (4 billion ÷ 58 billion). This aligns with Bitcoin ETF holdings (e.g., 4–8% of supply across multiple funds), considering institutional custody trends.
It’s worth noting that BlackRock, the largest issuer of real-world asset (RWA) products by market cap, has not yet submitted an XRP ETF application. Among the current applicants, Franklin Templeton is the largest player.
Additionally, Nate Geraci believes that BlackRock and Fidelity will likely join the XRP ETF race in the future.
For now, the market will have to wait until the legal proceedings between the SEC and Ripple are concluded before any realistic timeline for XRP ETF approval can be expected. This means approval is unlikely to happen within the next two months.
Even after the case is resolved, the SEC may not approve the ETF applications immediately. The process could involve requests for revisions, updates to submitted forms, and other regulatory or bureaucratic delays.
At the same time, crypto ETFs are becoming increasingly popular, as shown by recent surveys. In January 2025, Bitwise published the results of a survey conducted among financial advisors, many of whom represent institutional investors. According to the report, ETFs remain one of the most in-demand investment vehicles among crypto-related products.
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