The Bitcoin (BTC) price just surged to new record highs above $75,000, as confidence grows that pro-crypto ex-US President Donald Trump is on course to secure victory in the 2024 US Presidential election.
Popular betting market Polymarket now has Trump’s odds of winning as above 80%, as Trump’s odds of securing victory in important swing states like Pennsylvania surge.
As things stand, Trump leads Democrat candidate Harris in Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia at present, and is currently on course to secure more than 270 electoral college votes required to secure the presidency.
Bitcoin was last trading around $74,000 and more near-term volatility is highly likely to ensue.
But if Trump does win, as is now the market’s base-case, there is scope for the “Trump trade” to extend in the coming weeks and months.
Trump came out as resoundingly pro-crypto earlier this year – he called for the establishment of a national Bitcoin stockpile and pledged to fire anti-crypto SEC chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office.
He has also promoted a DeFi project called World Liberty Financial, which his family is heavily involved in.
So, assuming Trump wins, a new era of pro-crypto regulatory policy in the USA is almost certainly around the corner.
Polymarket also shows fast-rising odds that the Republican Party sweeps control of the House and Senate – this opens the prospect of Congress passing broad crypto regulations, handing the US crypto industry much-needed uncertainty.
Can the Bitcoin Price Hit $100,000 This Year?
Assuming Trump does clinch victory tonight, the stars are most certainly aligning for another leg up in the Bitcoin market.
Trump’s assumed victory comes against the backdrop of a strong macro environment in the USA for risk assets.
The Fed continues to gradually ease interest rates, thanks to the ongoing deflationary trend in the USA.
However, the US economy continues to perform well, per recent GDP and consumer spending data.
Uncertainty in the lead up to the US election has also been a major weight on the shoulders of the Bitcoin market.
With that uncertainty now on the brink of lifting, the Bitcoin price could be on the verge of receiving a major green light for further upside.
Bitcoin traders must also remember that the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap continues to closely follow its typical four-year cycle, suggesting a strong risk of further price upside.
Bitcoin tends to consolidate for up to six months in wake of each halving before pumping to fresh record highs. Its been just over six months now since the April halving.
This pattern is unlikely to persist forever. But right now, the fundamentals are aligning perfectly with the historic cycle.
The Bitcoin price could well be on course to surge above $100,000 before the end of the year.
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