In a memo to clients dated October 8, 2024, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted that Bitcoin could surge to $80,000 by the end of the fourth quarter, influenced by factors such as the U.S. presidential election, economic conditions, and the stability of the crypto market.
Hougan explained that this Bitcoin rally would depend on several key factors, including the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election, broader economic developments, and the stability of the cryptocurrency industry.
He also suggested that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 shortly afterward, provided market sentiment continues to improve.
Matt Hougan Asserts a Donald Trump Win Could Boost Bitcoin Rally
Hougan emphasized that a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. election could significantly bolster Bitcoin’s price.
He noted that many Americans view the election, set for November 5, as a binary outcome for the crypto market: a Trump win could fuel Bitcoin’s rise, while a Democratic victory, especially under Vice President Kamala Harris, might create obstacles for digital assets.
Hougan pointed to influential figures like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has been a vocal critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as potential roadblocks if the Democrats win.
In contrast, other prominent figures, such as Representative Ritchie Torres, have been supportive of the crypto industry.
He also highlighted recent comments by Representative Maxine Waters, who previously criticized digital assets but recently acknowledged that “crypto is inevitable,” signaling a possible shift in the Democratic stance.
Economic Drivers and Crypto Market Stability
Turning to economic factors, Hougan emphasized their critical role in driving Bitcoin’s rally.
According to the memo, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have benefited from recent global economic developments, including the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates and China’s introduction of a $284 billion fiscal stimulus.
Hougan expects another 50 basis points in rate cuts from the Fed by the end of the year, alongside additional economic stimulus from China.
If these conditions hold, he believes the environment will be ideal for a Bitcoin rally. However, he cautioned that if these expectations fall short, market enthusiasm could diminish.
For Bitcoin to reach the $80,000 mark, Hougan stressed that the crypto market must avoid major disruptions, such as large-scale hacks, new lawsuits, or a sudden influx of previously locked coins entering circulation.
Stability within the market will be important for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Matt Hougan Identifies Altcoin Growth as Key Catalyst for Bitcoin Rally
Hougan also pointed to the growth of altcoins as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge.
While Bitcoin’s long-term success does not rely on the performance of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, Hougan explained that a robust altcoin market could foster broader enthusiasm for Bitcoin.
He argued that strong momentum in the altcoin space often attracts new investors and generates excitement, which can have a ripple effect on Bitcoin.
This dynamic is especially important during periods of market volatility, where a strong altcoin rally can help support Bitcoin’s climb toward higher price levels.
Hougan remains confident in his $80,000 Bitcoin prediction, maintaining that a combination of political, economic, and market stability will set the stage for a significant rally by the end of 2024.
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